Be careful.
Signs from the marketplace can be, and are, confusing, conflicting and misleading.
A recent national nine-week series of surveys revealed a consistent growth in confidence of Australians. It attracted national headlines, particularly the figure 98.3.
For those statistically-illiterate, and those who simply scanned the media release text, many interpreted the quantum sum to imply, if not declare, that 98.3% of Australians were confident. Not so.
Indeed the study nominated the national “norm” to be 100. Therefore, 98.3% was a negative numeral, albeit marginal. Alas, some things are relative rather than absolute.
The implications and application of these quirky characteristics of attitudes, perceptions, expectations and, yes, confidence are profound and widespread.
BUYING CUES
High and strengthening degrees of consumer confidence are not necessarily definitive and accurate measures of probable increases in demand, sales and revenues.
In the same study, some 42% of respondents stated that now, in the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic (and lockdown), was a “good time” to buy major household items.
Those two dimensions only tell part of a complex story.
A similar figure (42%) of people expect “bad times” for the Australian economy over the ensuing five years.
Indeed, there is a difference of some 64% in the expectation of it being a “bad time”, rather than a “good time”, overall, in 12 months’ time.
Against the backdrop of the nation having the second highest personal debt levels (204% of average annual income) after Switzerland, probable double-digit unemployment and a pending recession for the first time in 29 years it is improbable that a mass surge of consumer demand appear in the marketplace any time soon.
Not even big discounts, sales events and other incentives will be effective in initiating and sustaining enhanced demand.
Those endeavours may in fact suggest a lack of confidence among the promoters.
IT’S PERSONAL
A significant feature of the research findings was the fact that a sizeable percentage of Australians were more confident about their own personal circumstances and prospects for the next 12 months than they were for the national economy at large.
Self-belief and self-confidence are powerful forces. They can be, and often are, subjective and emotional.
Therefore, the entrepreneurial flame will not be extinguished. The rate of business start-ups and growth initiatives may become more tempered and measured. However, the spirit will persist, particularly as retrenchments, furloughs and employment dismissals continue, as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic.
In marketing, personal and personable communications have the capacity and prospect of eliciting positive responses. Care needs to be taken, and details noted.
The study findings highlight differing expectations for the time horizons of one year, five years, and beyond.
Striking a chord will be a matter of the right message at the right time.
CIRCUMSTANTIAL REALITIES
It is inevitable that the one constant in the unfolding decade, as Australia and the world emerge from its first widespread recession in 29 years, is change.
Individual and collective moods will oscillate, rapidly and substantially. Accordingly, responses to external variables and stimulants – including advertising, marketing and merchandising – will vary appreciably. Unpredictable? Yes.
A rejection, dismissal or deflection today will not, and should not, be considered an emphatic, categoric and ongoing, NO.
Moods change. So too do confidence ... opportunities, demand, sales, revenue flow and consumption.
VERY SAUCY
In many respects, confidence can be, and should be deemed to be the sauce that lubricates the wheels of commerce. Without it there is friction, heat and adverse consequences.
Like COVID-19, confidence is infectious. Once the factors of being able to afford expenditures, employment security and income stability and continuity are addressed, redressed and neutralised, confidence will overcome or overwhelm apprehension and risk tolerance.
Presuming and asking for the business reflect and project confidence.
Has there ever been a better time to invest or buy? Repeat after me:
I confidently believe...
Barry Urquhart
Marketing Strategist
Marketing Focus
M: 041 983 5555
E: Urquhart@marketingfocus.net.au